## The Green State in Late Capitalism: A Trilemma of Governance This study explores the challenges faced by capitalist states in pursuing "green" initiatives amidst intersecting crises: economic stagnation, surplus populations, and environmental degradation. These crises, stemming from capitalism's drive for increased productivity, create a "wicked trinity" that complicates state governance. The core argument is that the state's capacity to address environmental issues is shaped by both its inherent nature (as a form of bourgeois society) and the specific historical development of capitalism. ### 1. The "Wicked Trinity" and its Implications Capitalism's relentless pursuit of higher labor productivity, achieved by substituting constant capital (means of production) for variable capital (labor power), leads to three interconnected crises: * **Economic Stagnation:** Productivity gains, while beneficial for individual firms, can lead to oversupply, falling profitability, and overall economic slowdown at the aggregate level. The solar PV boom, initially lauded for its success, resulted in oversupply and falling profitability, forcing states to intervene with subsidies and other non-liberal measures. * **Surplus Populations:** Productivity increases lead to job displacement faster than new jobs are created, resulting in mass unemployment and underemployment, particularly in a context of economic stagnation. It's crucial to understand that this isn't simply a matter of technological unemployment; it's a systemic issue rooted in the logic of capital accumulation. * **Environmental Degradation:** The drive for productivity necessitates increased resource extraction and waste generation, leading to environmental damage and climate change. The "treadmill of production" metaphor effectively illustrates this continuous cycle of resource depletion and pollution. These three crises are intertwined, forming a "wicked trinity" (see Fig. 1). Addressing one crisis often exacerbates the others, creating a complex and contradictory governance challenge for the state. Visualizing the "wicked trinity" as a three-sided triangle helps understand the interconnectedness of these crises and the challenges they pose for state governance. ### 2. Green State Transformations: Competing Perspectives The literature on state-led environmental transitions offers two main perspectives: * **Ecological Modernization:** This perspective argues that states can be "greened" through ecological modernization, adapting their core functions to prioritize ecological sustainability. It views anti-ecological elements as historically contingent, not structural. The expansion of welfare states in the 20th century is cited as an example of successful state transformation. * **Critical Perspectives:** This perspective emphasizes the structural link between the state and capital accumulation, arguing that genuine ecological transitions are incompatible with capitalist growth. It highlights the limitations of the state in overcoming the "sustainability/accumulation tension." Neo-Weberian accounts suggest a "glass ceiling" for state action when environmental goals conflict with other state imperatives. This article aligns with critical perspectives, but adds a focus on the *directionality* of capitalist development and its implications for state governance. ### 3. Capitalist Directionality and the Anachronism of Liberal Governance 3.1 **Putting Out Fires:** The liberal state, while formally separated from the economy, is not autonomous from it. Its existence depends on a healthy private sphere, leading to prioritization of accumulation over individual liberty when necessary. Historical instances of liberal states adopting illiberal policies to protect capitalist interests are cited. State governance becomes reactive, focused on "putting out fires" rather than long-term planning. 3.2 **Capitalism's Developmental Logic:** Capitalism's inherent drive for productivity growth leads to secularly intensifying tendencies: economic stagnation, surplus populations, and environmental destruction. While not deterministic, these tendencies become increasingly difficult to mitigate as capitalism matures. 3.3 **The Anachronism of Liberal Governance:** The "wicked trinity" strains both the political and economic aspects of liberal governance. States increasingly resort to illiberal policies (e.g., border militarization, surveillance) to manage surplus populations, while simultaneously violating liberal economic principles (e.g., massive subsidies) to address economic stagnation and environmental challenges. The line between "normal" liberal governance and exceptional crisis management blurs. ### Key Takeaways * The capitalist state faces a "wicked trinity" of crises: economic stagnation, surplus populations, and environmental degradation. * These crises are interconnected and stem from capitalism's inherent drive for productivity growth. * The state's capacity to address environmental challenges is constrained by both its inherent nature and the historical trajectory of capitalism. * Liberal governance is increasingly anachronistic, as states are forced to adopt illiberal measures to manage the crises while simultaneously attempting to maintain the liberal order. This analysis provides a framework for understanding the complex challenges faced by capitalist states in pursuing environmental sustainability and suggests that a deeper understanding of capitalism's developmental logic is crucial for analyzing the political-ecological futures of the state.